Philippines: Tourism Between Hope and Threat

The Philippine Department of Tourism (DOT) has maintained its baseline target of 6.7 million international visitors for 2026. This goal was set under former Secretary Christina Garcia‑Frasco and remains in place under the current administration. By the end of 2025, arrivals totaled only 6.48 million, highlighting the challenge of reaching—or surpassing—the ambitious figure.

A New Secretary, the Same Target

In April 2026, President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. appointed Dita Angara‑Mathay as Secretary of Tourism. She brings two decades of experience in trade and investment and has pledged to turn tourism into an engine for jobs and regional development. While she refuses to “over‑promise,” she remains committed to the 6.7‑million target and intends to strengthen international connectivity and domestic routes. Angara‑Mathay also insists on keeping the travel tax because its proceeds support training, infrastructure, and cultural preservation. She has stated that sustaining or slightly increasing the current arrival numbers would be an achievement given the global environment.

The Ceasefire in the Gulf

On 15 June 2026, U.S. President Donald Trump announced that the United States and Iran had reached a preliminary agreement extending the ceasefire and reopening the Strait of Hormuz. According to Reuters, the deal provides a 60‑day extension of the ceasefire and commits to reopening the strategic waterway; however, key details remain vague and a formal signing ceremony is still pending. The agreement allows toll‑free passage through the strait for 60 days, and further negotiations will address Iran’s nuclear program PBS reports that the strait will not reopen until the agreement is officially signed, and energy experts warn it could take months for energy supplies to normalize. World leaders welcomed the breakthrough but cautioned that significant issues—such as Israel’s actions in Lebanon and Iran’s missile program—remain unresolved.

Impact on Energy and Travel

The shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz and the outbreak of war earlier in 2026 caused jet fuel prices to surge, leading to flight cancellations and higher airfares. Analysts at Leechiu Property Consultants noted that airfare increased by 25–50 % and over 650 ASEAN meetings were canceled during the crisis . As a result, occupancy dropped significantly, with 64 % of hotels reporting severe impacts and 80 % saying occupancy was declining. Following the ceasefire announcement, oil prices fell to a three‑month low , but experts warn that it will take months for energy markets to return to normal. Therefore, travel costs may remain elevated in the short term, and Philippine airlines and hotels must remain cautious.

New Scenarios for Philippine Tourism

The earlier projections from Leechiu Property Consultants—which anticipated a 5–30% shortfall in arrivals depending on how the conflict evolved —were based on an ongoing war. With the ceasefire, the outlook can be updated:

A. Ceasefire holds and the strait reopens: If the deal is signed promptly and the Strait of Hormuz reopens as promised, oil prices may continue to fall in the third quarter. Traveler confidence could return, and hotel occupancy might recover late in the year. Under this scenario, the DOT could meet the 6.7‑million target or fall only slightly short.

B. Implementation delays: If negotiations drag on and the strait remains closed, energy supplies will stay tight and airfares high. Flight disruptions will persist, making it difficult to attract long‑haul tourists. The Philippines may struggle to reach its target and will need to rely more on domestic tourism and e‑visa programs to support the industry.

C. Renewed conflict after 60 days: Should hostilities resume after the ceasefire period, the previous pessimistic projections—significant drops in occupancy and a shortfall exceeding 30%—could return. The tourism sector would once again face a severe downturn.

Looking Ahead

As of today, one overarching question remains: Can the Philippines welcome 6.7 million visitors in 2026 while the world navigates another fragile peace?

The answer depends on the resilience of the ceasefire, the speed with which airlines can lower costs, and the ability of the government and private sector to adapt. Secretary Angara‑Mathay underscores that the target is a guide, not a guarantee. Achieving it will require strong coordination across the industry and a bit of luck with global politics. In the end, the nation’s unity and readiness will determine whether this ambition becomes reality or remains just a number on a government agenda.